MANILA, July 22 (Xinhua) -- Economic growth in emerging East Asia will
moderate to 7.6 percent in 2008 and 2009 as the region weathers a global
economic slowdown, sharp rise in food and energy prices and volatility reigns in
financial markets, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Tuesday.
The region's slowing yet solid growth outlook remains vulnerable to a
higher-than-expected spike in inflation, protracted slowdown in the United
States and any further tremors in global financial markets, the Manila-based
development bank said in its July issue of Asia Economic Monitor.
The report warns that core inflation, a measure of price increase that
excludes food and energy costs, is rising across the region, signaling that a
more broad-based second-round price effect may be underway.
Even as growth moderates, there are little signs of price pressures, fueled
by high energy and food costs, subsiding. Inflation is expected to rise to 6.3
percent, more than double the rate of the past ten-year average inflation. This
has serious implications as the average household in the region spends over
fifty percent of its monthly expenditure on food and fuel, according to the
report.
"Rising inflation is a serious threat to the region's sustained, strong
growth as high import costs of food and fuel threaten to trigger a price/wage
spiral, unleashing more inflation," says Jong-Wha Lee, Head of ADB's Office of
Regional Economic Integration in a press release.
Economic growth in China, the region's economic powerhouse, will slow to
9.9 percent in 2008 and 9.7 percent in 2009 from 11.9percent in 2007 on the back
of a gradual appreciation of the yuan, tightening policies and weakening
external demand.
Growth in members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is
expected to ease by one percentage point to 5.5 percent in 2008, according to
the semiannual report.