News Analysis: Irish "No" vote plunges EU into uncertainty_English

·Irish "No" vote to Lisbon Treaty has plunging EU into a state of uncertainty.
·53.4 percent of Irish voters voted against the treaty.
·EU states "should continue to ratify the treaty despite the Irish result."

by Ma Guihua

LONDON, June 14 (Xinhua) -- Irish voters on Friday rejected the hard-negotiated Lisbon Treaty designed to reform the expanded European Union, plunging the 27-nation bloc into a state of uncertainty.

Official results show that 53.4 percent of voters voted against the treaty designed to streamline the EU institutions with high levels of efficiency and a more unified voice in decision making.

Irish voters have rejected Lisbon Treaty on the European Union reform at 862,415 to 752,451 votes as the results were announced in Dublin on Friday afternoon, Sky news reported.

Irish celebrate as voters rejected Lisbon Treaty on the European Union reform on June 13, 2008. (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
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Ireland is the only country among the 27 EU member states that holds a referendum on the reform treaty as required by the country's constitution. Its "No" vote has left both the 18 countries which have already ratified the treaty and the others in the process of ratification into a real dilemma.

Ireland's "No" vote also means that the country's 3 million or so registered voters who account for only 1 percent of the EU population have thrown the 500 million EU citizens into the embarrassment of an unknown future.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso had said before the Irish referendum that a "No" vote would get all EU countries including Ireland to "pay a price," and there would be "no plan B."

After the public vote on Friday, he reiterated that the treaty is not "dead", and the Irish "No" vote should not be seen as "voting against the European Union".

EU states "should continue to ratify the treaty despite the Irish result," he said.

Germany and France, both strong supporters for the treaty, said they regret the voting result in Ireland but called on other member states to press ahead with the project.

Britain vowed to continue the ratification process of the treaty through parliament as planned, even through the country's Euro sceptics have been urging the government to hold a referendum.

Slovenia, the current holder of the EU presidency, admitted the "No vote" has "put the brakes on" EU integration but said the treaty remained a key European building block.

However, Czech President Vaclav Klaus said Friday that the treaty was finished and the ratification process must be frozen.

The repercussions of the "No" vote by the Irish have still yet to be felt across the Europe, analysts say.

Before the referendum, the Irish government led by newly elected Taoiseach Brian Cowen, major political parties and trade unions have flung their support for the Lisbon Treaty, campaigning vigorously in the past few months to get more people understand and therefore support the treaty.

The Lisbon Treaty was drafted and passed in October 2007 in the Portuguese capital by heads of state and government from all the EU member countries to reshape EU institutions and resurrect major reform proposals embodied in the failed constitution rejected by the Dutch and the French in 2005.

It envisages potentially powerful new roles for an EU president and a foreign policy chief, and reduced national veto powers in a bid to put the decision-making process onto a faster track.

Under the treaty, the European Commission would be cut down from 27 to 18 members, the decision-making process would be based on majority instead of unanimous votes, and the power of the 785-seat European Parliament be strengthened.

Nonetheless, due to a lack of interest in voting and digesting the real meaning in between the words of the 287-page treaty, the turnout below the minimum 45 percent requested for a successful "Yes" vote has greatly affected the results of voting.

Those opposing the treaty, though not in a majority, are a resolute bunch who turned out in the polling stations and made their voices heard.

Led by Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams, the "No camp" believes that the treaty, which would reduce the veto powers of individual members, especially small countries with small populations, would undermine Ireland's sovereignty on moral, military and financial matters.

Ireland, a member of the EU for 35 years, has always been the direct beneficiary of its policies. With the 32 billion pounds (some 64 billion U.S. dollars) EU grants over the years, it has emerged from a poor, agrarian country into the second richest country (per capita) in the region after Luxembourg.

Still, the Lisbon Treaty has instilled genuine concerns among the Irish public. Farmers in the country have benefited from two-thirds of Ireland's EU subsidies. They fear that the EU reforms as blueprinted in the Lisbon Treaty would cut their subsidies and hence impede rural development.

There are also voters who are worried that their country's long-cherished neutrality in foreign and defense affairs since Ireland's independence from Britain could be compromised under the EU's new majority voting system. Others are concerned about Ireland's strict ban on abortion might be tampered with in future EU laws.

In addition, Ireland's favorable 12.5 percent corporate tax as compared with 28 percent in Britain has long been the key attraction to foreign companies and investment. The Irish fear a centralized EU taxation system might lead to interference into their own system and damage the country's economic prospect.

What's more, with EU expansion, more and more immigrants from eastern European countries are rushing into the Irish job market, including some 200,000 job seekers from Poland and the Baltic states. Local residents worry that their own jobs might be at risk.

The latest figures show that unemployment in Ireland hit 200,000 for the first time since 1999, which makes up 5.4 percent of the workforce. With the credit crunch, soaring food and oil prices, people in Ireland become more vulnerable and skeptical about any intangible changes that might result from EU reforms.

It is no wonder therefore, the Sinn Fein has urged the government to renegotiate with the EU on the treaty, for more opt-outs or vetoes on issues such as foreign policies, public services and workers' rights.

Analysts believe that Ireland's "No" vote, indeed again a setback for the EU, is definitely not the end to the EU integration. The most likely option for the EU might be to tinker with the treaty and ask Ireland to vote again.

After all, Ireland had voted twice in their referendums to get the Nice Treaty ratified in 2001. And the "No" vote to the EU constitution by France and the Netherlands in 2005 had led to a new Lisbon Treaty.

On the other hand, the "No" vote could trigger deep reflection for EU governments on how to better engage their people in the profound reforms of the expanded bloc, analysts say.