BEIJING, June 10 -- Diesel-powered vehicles, already
used to address energy and environmental concerns in many Western countries, are
still not ready for mass use in China, analysts from China Passenger Car
Association said.
Although converting China's auto industry to diesel
is being discussed amid government efforts to battle pollution and record high
oil prices, it has been rejected due to energy shortages as well as poor fuel
quality.
"The development of diesel-powered cars relies on
abundant diesel supply," Cui Dongshu, analyst from CPCA, the semi-official
automotive institution, wrote in a research report. "But the diesel shortage
hasn't been improved, and is getting worse."
Oil refiners are unwilling to add diesel production,
fearing a loss in profits amid soaring crude oil prices and the low diesel
market price, which is strictly capped by the Chinese government.
Despite limited production, market demand for diesel
has gone up quickly. China used around 125 million tons of diesel last year and
is forecast to use 140 million tons by 2010. The demand comes from agriculture,
power generation, rail transportation industries and, in particular, the large
population of commercial vehicles.
The world's second largest auto market included more
than 10.27 million commercial vehicles last year, accounting for 25 percent of
the total civilian car population. The proportion is much higher compared to the
9-percent market penetration in Germany in 2005 and 4-percent in Canada,
indicating diesel cars will be less encouraged in China to avoid overburdening
the diesel supply.
"For social stability, the development of the auto
industry should not progress at the cost of taking resources from other
industries," Cui added. Diesel models are also not expected to grow
significantly in number in the short term due to poor diesel quality, high
purchase price and costly spare parts.
Progress has made diesel cars quieter, smoother and
more powerful after automotive producers such as Volkswagen and Bosch poured
millions of yuan into research. Modern diesel vehicles now could be about 30
percent more fuel efficient than gasoline vehicles and emit 40 percent less
carbon dioxide.
But the poor-quality diesel fuels in China has been
blamed for damaging the engine and emitting more waste.
In Europe, most countries offer incentives to
encourage the use of diesel models, including taxes that lower the diesel price
to less than that of gasoline. China hasn't issued any incentives for diesel and
has ruled out the model from its top priority in 2007.
About 25 percent of all new passenger vehicles sold
in Europe are powered by diesel and by 2005, diesels accounted for 50 percent of
all new vehicles sold.
In China, gasoline engines power more than 99 percent of all car sales, with less than 1 percent powered by diesel or other fuels.
(Source: Shanghai
Daily)