BEIJING, April 15 (Xinhuanet) -- California is
99 percent certain of being struck by a strong earthquake sometime in the next
30 years, scientists said as quoted by media reports Tuesday.
New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent
chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years,
according to a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Southern
California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey Monday. The study
used new data and analyzing earthquake probabilities across the state.
The chances of a monster quake, measuring 7.5 or
greater, were predicted at 46 percent over the same projected period, with
densely populated southern California most likely to be affected.
"It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said
Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead
author of the report.
The group also found that two of California's largest
cities -- Los Angeles and San Francisco -- were more than 63 percent likely to
face a 6.7 quake.
The Jan. 17, 1994, Northridge quake in Los Angeles
killed 72 people, injured more than 10,000 and caused billions of dollars in
damage.
Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the
first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the potential
severity of ground shaking in an area. The information can also help with
updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance
rates.
(Agencies)