BEIJING, April 10 (Xinhua) -- China should adopt a stable foreign exchange
rate policy to avert the possible economic fall-out of continued yuan
appreciation, policy advisers said on Thursday, as the currency broke through
the 7 mark against the U.S. dollar.
Neither a sharp one-off appreciation nor major fluctuations were desirable,
said Fan Gang, Monetary Policy Committee member of the central bank, the
People's Bank of China (PBOC).
The yuan, or Renminbi (RMB), was set by the PBOC to trade at a central
parity rate of 6.992 per dollar on Thursday, the first time since July 2005
(when the dollar peg was dropped) when it fell below 7. Since the peg was
abandoned, the yuan has risen 15.99 percent against the dollar. So far this year
alone, it has risen 4.47 percent as the dollar has continued to weaken.
The rate of 7 per dollar was a key point for China to safeguard its
financial interests and worth "serious deliberation", said Tan Yalin, a
researcher in the global financial markets department of the Bank of China.
Overly rapid appreciation would pose a risk to China's double-digit
economic growth, a large part of which had been driven by exports, said Cai
Ruhai of the Central University of Finance and Economics.
Major trading partners such as the United States have pushed for the yuan's
appreciation, arguing that an undervalued currency made Chinese goods
artificially cheap and caused it to run a huge trade surplus.
The RMB was already rising fast enough and China should first guarantee the
stability of employment and economic order, said researcher Mei Xinyu at the
Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a division of
the Ministry of Commerce.
As export growth has slowed and import growth has picked up, the trade
picture has begun to shift. For example, the trade surplus fell to 8.56 billion
U.S. dollars in February, roughly one-third of that a year earlier.
How long that trend will persist is unclear. Analysts said the fall was
mainly caused by China's severe winter, which affected the production and
transportation of exports, and weaker U.S. demand amid the ongoing credit
crisis. However, faster currency appreciation was also exerting pressure on
exporters.
China will keep the yuan basically stable at a reasonable, balanced level,
the PBOC's monetary policy advisers told a conference last week.
China needed a relatively stable forex policy to protect itself from
speculative fund flows when the world economy was facing uncertainties such as
the spreading credit crisis, said Fan.
Investment bank UBS issued a report on Wednesday saying that the PROC had
let the yuan strengthen again as concerns about encouraging so-called hot money
inflows had eased.
"By (last) October it was clear that capital was flowing back out of the
country, likely tied to the turnaround in the domestic stock market," it said.
But deeper exchange-rate reforms were needed to counter speculation in the
yuan, said experts.
A wider daily trading band would provide greater flexibility to the central
bank and increase speculators' risks. It would also give the currency more room
to move lower as well, said Bank of China researcher Wang Yuanlong.
The PBOC has set a 0.5-percent daily trading band for the yuan against the
dollar. The rate is determined by the weighted average of quotes (the highest
and lowest excluded) on the inter-bank market. Wang forecast that the band might
be widened to 1 percent.
Premier Wen Jiabao has made it a government task this year to perfect the
exchange rate mechanism and improve flexibility.
However, continuously rising pressure for a stronger yuan will make
monetary policies harder to implement, said Tan.