Special Report: Iran Nuclear Crisis

    UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 26 (Xinhua) -- Iran faces growing pressure from the United Nations Security Council as the world body looks set to consider a new draft resolution later this week containing stronger sanctions against Tehran regarding its nuclear program.

    U.S. officials, following a closed-door meeting on Iran of diplomats from Germany and the five permanent members of the Security Council on Monday in Washington, said they expect a quick vote on a third resolution imposing expanded sanctions on Tehran.

    "We continue to expect a vote soon on the draft sanctions resolution currently being discussed in New York," U.S. State Department spokesman Tom Casey said.

    STRONGER SANCTIONS

    The new draft was in essence based on "elements for a third sanctions resolution" agreed in January in Berlin by the foreign ministers of Germany, Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, only with some changes in wording.

    A Security Council session is scheduled for Wednesday for members to coordinate their positions over the latest draft, distributed by Britain, France and Germany over the weekend. A vote could be held as soon as Friday.

    Compared with the two previous UN Security Council resolutions on Iran, the new draft will include travel restrictions and bans for more Iranians; an expansion of asset freezes; curbs on dual-use items and export credit; financial monitoring; cargo inspections on aircraft and vessels; and possible "next steps."

    Analysts say the new draft has basically followed the modalities of Resolutions 1737 and 1747 with the aim of imposing appropriate pressure on Tehran to provide impetus for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue.

    They say the proposed sanctions can only harm Iran in a limited way, and the real significance does not lie in the actual penalties but in the sense that they represent political and diplomatic pressure from the international community.

    DIFFERENCES HARD TO BRIDGE WITHIN SECURITY COUNCIL

    As the five permanent members of the Security Council have reached broad consensus on the new draft, no major problems are likely to prevent it from getting adopted procedurally. The question lies in whether the 15-member council could pass a resolution unanimously, as was the case with the previous two resolutions on Tehran.

    It appears that unanimity could be hard to come by this time around.

    Some of the 10 non-permanent members, like South Africa, Indonesia and Libya, have already raised objections or doubts over the resolution on further sanctions on Iran.

    Libya seems to have difficulties in principle with endorsing further sanctions and is likely to call for more negotiations as the best way to address the Iranian nuclear issue.

    South Africa, for its part, says the inspection of Iranian cargo could be thrown into legal limbo. Indonesia also expressed misgivings over whether sanctions would hurt Tehran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

    U.S. and other Western Security Council members want the resolution to clear the council unanimously so as to signify the solidarity of the international community and the isolation of Iran.

    To reach such an outcome, they would inevitably have to consult with non-permanent members over some details of the new sanctions resolution. If such consultations fail, Washington and other Western members would most likely force the draft through the council despite objection or abstention votes from some non-permanent members, but this would no doubt weaken the weight of the resolution.

    BREAKTHROUGH UNLIKELY IN SHORT-TERM

    On Friday, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei circulated his latest report on nuclear safeguards in Iran, but the document did not expressly answer the question as to whether Iran's nuclear program is of a peaceful nature.

    The report said Iran had clarified many of the outstanding issues regarding its nuclear program but had not adequately cleared up "alleged weaponization studies."

    "We have not seen any indication that these studies were linked to nuclear material," ElBaradei said. "So that gives us some satisfaction but the issue is still critical for us to be able to come to a determination as to the nature of Iran's nuclear program."

    Statements made by Iranian and U.S. officials in the wake of the latest IAEA report showed neither Tehran nor Washington is budging.

    At a meeting with ambassadors and heads of foreign diplomatic missions in Tehran on Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki urged the United States to "deal realistically" with its nuclear issue and refrain from politicizing it, the Tehran-based Alalam satellite television station reported.

    Mottaki said Iran would pursue its atomic program "steadfastly," accusing the United States and its allies of piling "unnecessary pressure on Iran, despite Tehran's full cooperation with the IAEA."

    Iran insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.

    In Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the IAEA report provides "a very strong case" for moving forward with a third UN Security Council resolution against Iran.

    "It is our firm belief that there is all the more reason now for the Security Council to pass a third sanctions resolution," U.S. assistant secretary for political affairs Nicholas Burns said.

    With less than a year left of George W. Bush term in the White House, analysts see little chance that the current U.S. administration would come up with any substantial solutions to the Iranian nuclear issue.

    On the other hand, Tehran, expecting some sort of change to emerge in U.S. policy toward Iran after Bush steps down, would naturally refrain from making any concessions easily.

    Therefore, observers foresee no major headway on the Iranian nuclear issue, but they believe new interactions are possible between the two sides after a new president moves into the White House.

    Under the new draft, ElBaradei would deliver a new report within 90 days from the adoption of the resolution on whether Iran has complied by suspending its uranium enrichment activities.

    If Tehran is again found guilty of non-compliance, the Security Council could consider further sanctions through new resolutions.

    From statements by Iranian leaders in recent days, analysts see little likelihood that Tehran would meet the requirements of the UN Security Council.

    The adoption of a third sanctions resolution on Iran, rather than signifying a breakthrough, would probably presage a new round of bickering and wrangling, they say.