BEIJING, Dec. 04 -- China's gross domestic product
(GDP) growth is expected to be close to 11 percent next year but inflation will
remain a major concern, said a top Chinese think tank.
The economy will grow by 11.6 percent this year, the
fifth consecutive year for the country to achieve double-digit GDP growth since
2003, according to the annual "blue book" on economic forecasts by the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), which was released Monday.
China's consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of
inflation, rose strongly in recent months, reaching a decade high of 6.5 percent
in both October and August.
The CASS forecast it may be 4.5 percent this year and
four percent next year.
"The first priority for China's macro controls in
2008 should be to contain overly fast rises in consumer and asset prices, to
ease inflationary pressure and stabilize price levels," the book said.
China's trade surplus is expected to expand to 290
billion U.S. dollars next year from 260 billion dollars this year, but export
growth will slow down to 20.5 percent from 25.1 percent thanks to the rising
value of yuan and the government's efforts to rebalance trade, such as cutting
export rebates.
The CASS predicted import growth will increase to
22.9 percent from 20.3 percent.
China's fixed-asset investment will expand by 25.6
percent year-on-year this year, the book said. Next year it could fall slightly
to 24.2 percent.
The macroeconomic growth figures show the economy may
become overheated if the trend continues, said Chen Jiagui, deputy head of CASS.
The combination of the rising prices of grain and
food, ample liquidity and the real negative interest rate has pushed up asset
prices, Chen said. "It is becoming harder to apply macroeconomic regulations."
He said it is best for China to keep the economic
growth at about 9 percent next year, but according to the book, economists
forecast it will be around 11 percent next year.
The think tank suggested the government should slow
down economic growth next year through tightening measures. Apart from
tightening controls on credit, the government can promote saving energy and
cutting pollutant emissions to make economic growth more efficient. The
government should also spend less on infrastructure and more on social security,
build more affordable apartments and increase agricultural subsidies, the book
said.
(Source: China Daily)
Investment bank forecasts China's
economy to grow 11% in 2008
Beijing, Dec. 4 (Xinhua) -- China's economy is forecast to grow11 percent
in 2008 while the RMB will continue to appreciate, an investment bank said in
its latest analysis.
"China's economy will not meet a hard landing but keep its fast momentum to
grow 11 percent next year," said the China International Capital Corporation
Limited (CICC) in its monthly forecast on macro-economy. "The appreciation of
the RMB will accelerate, with an annual rise of 10 percent." Full story
UBS: China's economy is not
overheated
BEIJING, Dec. 1 -- Investors' concerns over a growth "hangover" from
domestic over-investment are unwarranted, said a UBS report released earlier
this week about China's macroeconomic trends in 2008.
Jonathan Anderson, UBS' senior analyst on global emerging markets, made
this comment in "The 2008 China Macro Almanac" amid worries that the country's
economy is set to overheat, with its double-digit gross domestic product (GDP)
and a monthly consumer price index (CPI) of more than six percent. Full story
Top statistician forecasts China's CPI
at 4.5-4.6% for whole year
BEIJING, Nov. 23 (Xinhua) -- China's consumer price index (CPI) will rise
4.5 percent to 4.6 percent for the whole of the current year, which will
indicate a moderate and tolerable inflation, the country's top statistician Xie
Fuzhan said Thursday at Tsinghua University.
Xie, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, added that the monthly rate
of CPI would likely linger at 6 percent or so for several months yet. Full story
