WASHINGTON, Nov. 19 (Xinhua) -- U.S. greenhouse gas emissions could grow more quickly in the next 50 years than in the previous half-century, and technological change may cause increased emissions rather than control them, according to a new study released Monday.

    Technology itself cannot be relied on as the most efficient tool for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions or solving the global energy crisis, said Professor Emeritus Richard Eckaus of the MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Department of Economics and his co-author, Ian Sue Wing, of Boston University.

    In a paper published in the November issue of Energy Policy they portrayed the changing interplay among technology, energy use and CO2 emissions based on a simulation of the U.S. economy.

    "We found that, in spite of increasing energy prices, technological change has not been responsible for much reduction in energy use, and that it may have had the reverse effect," said Eckaus.

    The researchers studied the periods 1958 to 1996 and 1980 to 1996 and projected from 2000 to 2050. Based on their findings from the past 50 years, and adjusting for a more realistic expectation for technological changes, they found that the rates of growth for energy use and emissions may accelerate from the historical rates of 2.2 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively.

    Eckaus acknowledged it has become counter-intuitive to question technology’s potential to solve the energy problem. But U.S. steel making illustrates how fossil fuel consumption can increase along with technological change: Steelmakers' furnaces are now electrical, reducing coal use at the plant. But coal generates some of the electricity that powers the factory furnace, resulting in more CO2 emissions.

    "There is no a priori reason [reason independent of experience] to think technology has the potential for reducing energy use while meeting the tests of economics," Eckaus said. Technology is not the magic bullet for cutting fossil fuels.