WASHINGTON, Oct. 25 (Xinhua) -- A new study published
Thursday in U.S. journal Science shows that climate researchers will not be able
to further refine estimates of the climates sensitivity to anthropogenic
influences.
Despite decades of ever more-exacting science
projecting Earth's warming climate, there remains large uncertainty about just
how much warming will actually occur, said two University of Washington
scientists.
This finding could encourage policy makers to begin
making climate-related decisions instead of waiting for better analyses, said
the scientific journal.
Scientists believe the uncertainty remains so high
because the climate system itself is very sensitive to a variety of factors,
such as increased greenhouse gases or a higher concentration of atmospheric
particles that reflect sunlight back into space.
In essence, they found that the more likely it is
that conditions will cause climate to warm, the more uncertainty exists about
how much warming there will be.
They devised and tested a theory they believe can
help climate modelers and observers understand the range of probabilities from
various factors, or feedbacks, involved in climate change.
For climate change, "uncertainty and sensitivity have
to go hand in hand. They're inextricable," said Gerard Roe, one of the study
author.