Laboratory personnel work at the new GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) laboratory in Singapore March 21, 2007.(Xinhua/Reuters Photo)

    BEIJING, June 11 (Xinhuanet) -- The 26 million people worldwide thought to be living with Alzheimer's disease could quadruple over the next 40 years and swell to more than 106 million by 2050, researchers from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, predict. 

    "By 2050, one in 85 people worldwide will have Alzheimer's disease. However, if we can make even modest advances in preventing Alzheimer's disease or delay its progression, we could have a huge global public health impact," said Ron Brookmeyer of Johns Hopkins University, who led the study on how many people have the disease.

    He warned that the biggest rise in cases would occur in Asia, where 48 percent of sufferers live. There, prevalence will grow from 12.65 million in 2006 to 62.85 million in 2050, accounting for 59 percent of all cases, the study said.

    The disease is very difficult to detect until it has progressed from mild memory loss to clear impairment. Patients eventually lose all ability to care for themselves.

    News of the predicted health crisis came as other experts unveiled a new test that can predict a person's risk of dementia in the next six years.

    It combines medical history, cognitive function and a physical examination and is 87 percent accurate, according to the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center in California.

    Christos Davatzikos and colleagues at the University of Pennsylvania used a combination of PET and MRI scans to diagnose Alzheimer's.

    Positron emission tomography or PET scans can be used to measure blood flow in the brain in real time, while magnetic resonance imaging or MRI can clearly show the shape and size of physical structures in the brain.

    "This abnormal pattern of brain structure and blood flow detected not only mild cognitive impairment but even earlier ... when they were clinically normal," Davatzikos said.

    A combination of a few simple measures worked best. They included greater age, scores on a simplified version of a standard cognitive exam, the time it took to button a shirt and the time needed to walk 15 feet, being underweight, and not drinking any alcohol at all.    

    (Agencies)