BEIJING, March 24 (Xinhua) -- China's economic growth
is set to slow in 2010 when the dependent population rises to a level that
cancels out the country's "demographic dividend", which has existed since the
mid-1960s, according to a recent World Bank global development report.
The dependency ratio - the gap between the working
population and those too young or old to work - in China was at its lowest in
1968, allowing the country to spend less on dependent groups and more on
economic development.
China's advantageous population structure has
contributed to 27 percent of economic growth, a similar figure to that in Japan
and Singapore, but a country's demographic dividend usually lasts for 40 years
until the aging problem looms.
Official statistics show China currently has 144
million people who are over 60 years old, accounting for 11 percent of the 1.3
billion population. But the number will reach 160 million in 2010, 200 million
in 2015 and 400 million in 2044, which will result in huge pressures being
exerted on the pension and healthcare systems.
"China has to invest more in education and training
to raise productivity and steer its manufacturing industries to create high
value-added products," an expert advised on condition of anonymity.
"Otherwise, when the demographic dividend is over,"
he said, "everything will slow down."
From 1950 to 1980, China's population exploded from
500 million to 1 billion, prompting the country to start its family planning
policy in the late 1970s.