BEIJING, March 5 (Xinhua) -- China should raise its benchmark interest rate
step by step to prevent economic bubbles, said Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist with
Galaxy Securities Company in an article published in China Securities Journal
Monday.
China is very cautious about further interest rate hikes, fearing that they
will entice more speculative funds into the country and accelerate the formation
of economic bubbles.
China deliberately keeps its Renminbi interest rate 3 percentage points
below the U.S. dollar rate, in order to maintain a high opportunity cost for
overseas capital entering China, Zuo said.
But since investors are convinced that the Renminbi will continue to
appreciate, the 3-percentage-point gap will not prevent foreign capital from
flowing into China and buying assets in the country, Zuo said.
But raising interest rates step by step will restrain the money supply,
help solve the problem of excessive liquidity and reduce the possibility of
economic bubbles, she said.
To date the central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has preferred
to raise the deposit reserve ratio -- rather than interest rates -- to fight
excess liquidity.
The PBOC announced on Feb. 17 that it would raise the country's required
reserve ratio by 50 basis points from Feb. 25, just 40 days after the previous
increase, the fifth hike since July 5, 2006.
The rate hike increases the reserve ratio to 10 percent. Rough calculations
indicate that the rate increase will siphon about 170 billion yuan of banking
funds from the market.
But with the country's trade surplus continuing to widen, the liquidity
problem will not go away anytime soon.