BEIJING, March 2 (Xinhua) -- Global stock markets will scale new heights
this year, due largely to excess liquidity, according to Zhu Min, vice governor
of the Bank of China, one of China's major commercial banks.
The prediction appears in a research report Zhu released Friday in
partnership with Wen Bin, a senior analyst with the BOC international finance
research institute.
Zhu and Wen said global stock markets turned in a robust performance last year with
record highs, a result mainly of better corporate profitability, excess liquidity
worldwide and continuing low interest rates.
According to the report, there is plenty of room for further rises in global stock
markets, but it warned that risks are also on the up. The potential risks are
covered by excess-liquidity-driven market surges for the time being, but markets
are increasingly volatile. The global markets will reach a new climax this
year amid increased volatility with risks becoming more serious in 2008, the
report forecast.
Around the globe, both nominal and real-term interest rates are now at the lowest
level for 30 years. The super low interest rates will mean excess
liquidity for quite a lengthy period. Excess liquidity contributed 20 percent to
market rises worldwide last year but could contribute as much as 50 percent this
year, the report said.
Stock market rises will be driven by capital flowing from commodity
futures and real estate markets into equity markets, according to the report.