KABUL, Feb. 10 (Xinhua) -- The Taliban recently said it would launch a spring offensive against foreign and government troops in Afghanistan and 2,000 suicide bombers were ready to make this year the bloodiest one for foreign soldiers.

    Moreover, due to rising Taliban-linked insurgency, Afghanistan plunged into the worst spate of bloodshed in 2006 after the Taliban regime collapsed late 2001 as 4,000 persons were killed. The number was nearly three times bigger than in 2005.

    Obviously the Taliban is showing a strong trend of resurgence. Analysts say several factors including geographic elements; enough fund and local support are behind the Taliban's revival.

    The first geographic factor benefiting the Taliban is the numerous mountains in southern and eastern Afghanistan, which are hotbeds of Taliban militants. The militants hide and move in mountains and frequently ambush foreign and government troops. This guerrilla-style maneuver makes foreign troops, despite their weapons superiority, hard to deal with and eradicate the militants.

    The second geographic factor is the porous Afghan-Pakistani border. Many Taliban militants cross the 2,400-km border back and forth, making it difficult for Afghan and the 48,000-strong foreign troop to hunt down them, as the soldiers can't overrun the border.

    Even Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf accepted early this month that the Taliban keeps on coming to Pakistan to get support and recruit people. He said some Pakistani soldiers turned a blind eye toward Taliban fighters during their cross-border movement.

    Taliban insurgence is also related to the rocketing opium industry in this country, which provides enough fund for militants. Afghanistan produced a record 6,100 tons of opium in 2006, which accounted for 92 percent of the world's supply. Afghan officials say much income from drug smuggling has flown into the hands of the Taliban, who provides protection for farmers planting poppy and those trafficking opium. In this way, the Taliban can charge them a huge sum of fund, which would be used to buy weapons and ammunition as well as pay its fighters. The monthly salary for one Taliban militant is about 300 U.S. dollars, while an Afghan soldier can only get some 100 dollars. This has allured many persons, especially the poor, to join the Taliban.

    "Poverty is a real and extreme threat to the country: there is evidence that poverty is driving support for the Taliban," a well-known Afghan scholar Musa Khan Jalalzai wrote in a recent article published by local Outlook newspaper.

    What's more, as many Taliban rebels are from local communities in southern and eastern Afghanistan, they have enjoyed certain support from locals. Militants may hide in some civilian compounds, get intelligence and information from some locals, and even acquire food and water from them. So it is really difficult for Afghan and foreign troops to discern, trace, capture and fight the militants.

    At the end of the U.S.-led Afghan War to oust the Taliban regime late 2001, many Taliban militants fled into mountains or into Pakistan, storing up lots of resources, materials and fighters for future fighting.

    Observers say the Taliban has been re-gathering strength calmly over the past few years, not attracting much attention from foreign troops.

    It is hard to say exactly how many fighters the Taliban owns now. Some Afghan and NATO officers say there are thousands of Taliban insurgents, while the Taliban claims it has numerous fighters.

    However, Afghan security forces are still rather weak before the rising insurgence and violence. It is a daunting task for the fledgling 40,000-strong Afghan national army and the 60,000-strong police to protect the long border and to hunt down militants.

    The Afghan police apparently face more troubles. "In addition to a lack of training and questionable loyalty, the Afghan police suffer from a lack of uniforms, inadequate equipment and transportation, dilapidated facilities and little or no pay," the Afghan scholar Jalalzai wrote in another recent article.

    The Taliban said it would launch a bloody spring offensive after snow on mountains melts and it becomes warmer, which makes it easier for militants to move.

    However, foreign and Afghan troops have vowed to carry out a pre-emptive spring offensive this year against Taliban militants and deal a huge blow to them.

    Analysts say no matter which side would launch a spring offensive, it seems that Afghanistan probably would witness a bloody and volatile spring.