Xinhua - English

LONDON, Jan. 4 (Xinhua) -- The world is likely to experience the warmest year on record in 2007, Britain's Met Office forecasts.

An extended warming period, resulting from an El Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean, will probably push up global temperatures, with a 60 percent chance that the average surface temperature will match or exceed the current record from 1998, BBC reported on Thursday quoting forecast by experts.

According to the report, the global surface temperature is projected to be 0.54 C above the long-term average of 14 C, beating the current record of 0.52 C, which was set in 1998.

The annual projection was compiled by the Met Office's Hadley Center of the United Kingdom, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia.

The forecast was primarily based on two factors: greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, and the effect of the El Nino, according to Chris Folland, head of the Hadley Center's climate variability research.

This year's potential to be a record breaker is linked to a moderate strength El Nino already established in the Pacific Ocean,according to experts.

"We have two methods of forecasting the effect of the El Nino. One is a statistical method based on two patterns of sea surface temperatures in the El Nino region, and the other is a complex mathematical model," Folland was quoted as saying, who added the forecast was then fine-tuned by looking back over data from the previous 50 years.

The 60 percent probability that 2007 would set a new record meant that it "was more likely than not," he said.

The Hadley Center has been issuing the annual forecast for the past seven years and says it has just a 0.06 C margin of error.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) which released in December provisional data on the global average surface temperature for 2006 estimated that last year was 0.42 C above the1961-1990 average, making it the sixth warmest on record.

However, the United Kingdom experienced the warmest year on record in 2006, according to Met Office figures released alongside the global forecast.

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