JAKARTA, Dec. 14 (Xinhua) -- An Indonesian scientist
has predicted that a huge earthquake with a magnitude of 9 on the Richter scale
is likely to rock Sumatra in the foreseeable future.
Earthquake scientist Danny Hilman Natawidjaja from
the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said the two huge earthquakes that
devastated Aceh province and Nias Island in 2004 and 2005 were not the end of
the earthquake cycle on Sumatra island, English daily The Jakarta Post reported
Thursday.
The data recorded by a global positioning system
until June 2006 showed the earlier earthquakes were reflections of underground
forces pushing the island in different directions.
"This movement will accumulate the energy from a huge
earthquake source under the Mentawai Islands, whose power could reach up to a 9
magnitude (quake) or even higher," Danny said.
While it was impossible to predict when the
earthquake would hit, it would likely affect the Mentawai Islands and Sumatra's
west coast -- from West Sumatra province to Bengkulu.
Danny has been working with the California Institute
of Technology's (Caltech) Tectonic Observatory since 1991 on the active tectonic
plates in Sumatra.
An extremely large earthquake hits Sumatra every 100
to 300 years, he said. Recorded earthquakes followed by tsunamis occurred in the
1300s, 1600s, 1797, 1833 and 2004.
The last earthquake centered under Mentawai measured
8.2 on the Richter scale in 1797 and caused 10-meter high waves, he said,
This data was verified by Danny and Caltech with
tests they made on coral.
The historical and coral records show the earth
crust's compression has reached the last phase or the tension release phase,
which indicates another big earthquake is due.
Twenty-seven GPS units have been installed throughout
Sumatra but are aimed at research and are yet to be connected to the province's
early warning system.