BEIRUT, Dec. 11 (Xinhua) -- The year of 2006 is full
of troubles for Lebanon, which endured a 34-day Israeli military offensive that
brings not only huge casualties but also economic loss and political crisis to
the beautiful coastal country.
The Israeli-Hezbollah conflict erupted on July 12
when guerrillas from the Lebanese Shiite group crossed the border at Aita
al-Shaab, and killed three Israeli soldiers and seized two others.
The Hezbollah action provoked immediately the fierce
counterpunch from Israel, which pounded Hezbollah's strongholds and Lebanese
infrastructure in the following month.
ECONOMY SHRINKS AT ALL-AROUND LEVELS
In a period of
more than one month, many key infrastructure in Lebanon, including bridges,
highways, power stations, oil tanks and the only international airport, were
destructed by Israeli devastating assault, which also claimed the lives of some
1,200Lebanese.
According to a recent government report, total direct
loss to Lebanon from the war were 2.8 billion U.S. dollars, which, as what
Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Seniora said, had wiped out 15 years of economic
development of the country.
Facing the huge loss from the war, the Lebanese
government is unable to make it up by itself as the government revenues also
shrinks greatly.
The 34-day conflict totally shattered the
government's hope of reaching a record high revenue growth in 2006.
As a destination country for tourism, Lebanon every
year has a large number of foreign tourists, who bring considerable income to
the country.
However, this summer's war scared almost all foreign
tourists away the resort country, whose economy largely depends on tourism and
the related businesses.
The worse is that the revenues of postwar Lebanon did
not restore to the prewar level, because Israeli continued siege on Lebanese
ports and airport after the war cut off the government's revenues from another
backbone industry -- transport. Huge loss plus low revenues caused a large
budget deficit, which jumped to 40.54 percent of total spending in 2006 from the
previous year's 30.83 percent.
Affected by the government's budget deficit, the
public debt could reach more than 40 billion U.S. dollars at the end of
2006,according to Lebanese Finance Minister Jihad Azour.
Meanwhile, Lebanese central bank also adjusted the
inflation rate in Lebanon, giving a staring 7 percent compared less than
0.5percent in 2005.
Local economic analysts said that the negative impact of the war will not be confined to 2006, but will spill over to the coming few years as well.
ENVIRONMENT NEEDS YEARS TO RESTORE
Similar to Lebanese economy, the environment of the
country also needs years to restore from an environmental disaster caused by the
Israeli bombings.
On July 13 and 15 Israeli jets targeted the fuel
tanks at the Jiyeh power station, some 30 km south of Beirut, resulting in the
leak of between 10,000 to 15,000 tons of fuel oil into the Mediterranean, the
worst in the world maritime history.
Some environmental experts worried that the spilled
oil will release toxic substances, which will go into the marine animals and the
food chain.
"It's going to affect seafood trade, fisheries and
tourism. It's going to be a hard and tough few years in terms of marine
environment," said Wael Hmaidan, a coordinator with the Lebanese environmental
Non-governmental Organization Greenline.
The contamination of the sea affected not only the
marine life but also the human being.
An evaluation on this oil leak disaster said that the
oil evaporation could cause air pollution, which would affect the long-term
health of as much as three million population living on Lebanese coast.
In the heavily pounded southern Lebanon, intensive
bombings on the residential area produced a mass of construction rubbish and
dust, which could enter the lungs with breath and cause diseases in respiration
system.
Another killer to Lebanese is the unexploded bombs,
including the prohibited cluster bombs, which have killed at least 24 people and
wounded more than 100 since the end of the war on Aug. 14.
According to an early testimony of an Israeli army
officer, Israel fired at least 1,800 cluster bombs containing over 1.2million
bomblets on Lebanon.
However, the estimate made by the United Nations is
much higher than the testimony, saying that three million such bomblets were
fired into Lebanon during the war.
The UN estimates that around one million unexploded
cluster bombs now litter 590 sites in south Lebanon posing a serious hazard to
civilians who returned to the area after the war and are now trying to rebuild
their lives.
The clearing work is estimated to cost at least a
year because the task will become much harder as winter rains and the growth of
grass in spring will conceal the bombs.
Local press describe the unexploded cluster bombs as
"hidden Azrael" which threatens the life of civilians at any moment.
POLITICAL RIFT DEEPENED
As a multi-sect country, Lebanon had suffered a
16-year civil war between 1970s and 1990s, during which the country's
infrastructure and economy were heavily damaged.
Learning lessons from the civil war, the Lebanese
people in recent years began to be aware of the importance of a peaceful and
harmonious society and dedicated to stabilize the domestic political situation,
which tended to stability in 2003.
However, Israeli assault in this summer smashed the
relative tranquility in Lebanon, where sectarian tensions and power struggles
rose again and reached a climax after the assassination of Industry Minister
Pierre Gemayel this month.
Israeli army launched a large-scale assault on
Lebanon with the aim of eradicating Hezbollah and bringing back the two abducted
soldiers but had to end the offensive resultless after a 34-dayoperation.
Encouraged by Israeli failure in reaching the
established goals, Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah declared "divine victory" few
days after the end of the conflict, and thus given higher support by the
Lebanese people.
With the stronger backing, pro-Syrian Hezbollah began
demanding for a greater say in the government, which has been dominated by an
anti-Syrian coalition since elections in last year, and called for the formation
of a national unity government.
But the country's top leaders failed to reach
agreement on the formation of such a unity government in which Hezbollah and its
allies would have a third-plus-one veto power.
Collapse of the consultation led to resignation of
six pro-Syrian cabinet ministers, including two from Hezbollah, in earlier
November.
After a few days, Lebanese political crisis turned to
a sharp deepening when the Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was assassinated on
Nov. 21.
Gemayel, a Christian anti-Syrian leader in Lebanon,
was shot dead when his convoy was attacked in Jdeide, about 15 km northeast from
Beirut.
The resignation of the six ministers and the death of
Gemayel put the Lebanese government on the brink of collapse, as according to
Lebanese law, the government dissolves automatically if eight ministers, or one
third of the 24-member cabinet, quit the government.
That would lead to the miscarriage of a newly
approved draft to set up an international tribunal to try the suspects in the
murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
The government, headed by Premier Fouad Seniora,
approved on Nov. 25 a UN draft on the international tribunal despite the absence
of six pro-Syrian ministers.
Lebanese President Emile Lahoud and Parliament
Speaker Nabih Berri, also an ally of Hezbollah, rejected the draft, citing that
the government was no longer constitutional after the six ministers'
resignation.
At the key point, Hezbollah called for street
protests to topple the current government while anti-Syrian Christian leader
Samir Geagea warned in response a counter-protests.
Despite the two sides' pledges of peaceful action,
the country has still been gripped with fears that the country would fall in
civil war when several clashes erupted between anti and pro-government
protestors.
Some local analysts say that Lebanese postwar
rebuilding project would doubtless be hampered by the ongoing sharp political
crisis.