LOS ANGELES, Dec. 4 (Xinhua) -- Researchers on Monday warned that within
the next few decades, another large-scale tsunami could flood densely populated
areas of western coastal Sumatra, who's south was completely devastated by the
December 2004 tsunami.
Using samples of coral from the Mentawai Islands, the researchers from the
Caltech University, University of Southern California (USC) and Indonesia
conducted computer simulations of the 1797 and 1833 tsunamis, allowing them to
evaluate worst-case scenarios for future tsunamis.
The computer modeling determined that two river valleys near Bengkulu, a coastal
city of about 350,000 people, could experience flooding up to several
kilometers inland.
The computer models "confirm a substantial exposure of coastal Sumatran
communities to tsunami surges," said lead author Jose Borrero, a scientist at
USC's Tsunami Research Center.
The study found that the same fault that caused the 2004 tsunami extends
farther southeast beneath the Indian Ocean, just off the southwestern coast of
Sumatra.
The fault produced large earthquakes and tsunamis in 1797 and 1833, and
researchers said the events appear to recur every 230 years on an average.
The study found that offshore islands could offer some protection to the
larger city of Padang, but during the 1797 tsunami, the waves reportedly carried
a 200-ton ship and other vessels into the town.
"The population of Padang in 1797 and 1833 was a few thousand,"Caltech
geology professor Kerry Sieh said. "Now it is about 800,000, and most of it is
within a few meters of sea level."
"We hope that these initial results will help focus educational efforts,
emergency preparedness activities and changes in the basic infrastructure of
cities and towns along the Sumatran coast," he said.
"When we tell people living along this 700-kilometer section of the Sumatran
coast that they will likely experience a big tsunami within the next 30 years,
they ask for details," Sieh said.
"How much time after the earthquake will they have before the tsunami
strikes? How big will the waves be? How far inland should they be prepared to
run? What areas are likely to suffer tsunami damage? This paper is our first
attempt to answer these important questions," he said.
The study was published in Monday's edition of the Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences.