BEIJING, July 11 -- Since the end of the Cold War, the overall global situation has tended to move towards moderation, and a more peaceful and stable environment has been evolving in Northeast Asia. However, certain unstable factors still exist, leading to concerns about the security situation. This article will deal with two major issues in this region.

    The first is the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear issue and the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

    The Korean Peninsula remains the principal security hotspot in Northeast Asia.

    Since the DPRK nuclear issue came to the fore in 2002, and from the trilateral talks to the present Six-Party Talks, attempts to resolve the issue have encountered numerous obstacles. However, as a result of the unstinting efforts of various parties, the issue is basically under control. In September 2005, the fourth round of the Six-Party Talks issued a joint declaration. This provided a consensus and raised expectations that the issue could be gradually solved.

    However, since the end of 2005, because of the confrontation between the United States and the DPRK over financial sanctions, the talks have again stalled and the prospects for an early resolution of the issue are gloomy.

    Nevertheless, there remains the possibility of a breakthrough. This is because:

    First, Washington's main concern continues to be in the Middle East. It is bogged down in its Iraq-Iran problems and does not want to see any escalation of the Korean nuclear issue. The United States hopes that, through the Six-Party Talks, the issue can be managed and that the various parties concerned put pressure on the DPRK.

    Second, the DPRK has not totally abandoned its choice of exchanging its nuclear capacity for security guarantees, and realizes the risks of going down the road of developing nuclear weapons.

    Third, the various parties concerned continue to strive for an early resumption of the talks.

    But we must also realize the seriousness of the situation. The confrontation between Pyongyang and Washington and their mutual distrust have intensified and the DPRK may well continue with its nuclear programme. In the United States and Japan, there are also forces casting doubt on the effectiveness of the Six-Party Talks and proposing further sanctions against the DPRK, even to the extent of calling for a change of government in Pyongyang.

    Whatever the case, if the Six-Party Talks remain stalled indefinitely, not only will the opportunity to resolve the issue be lost, the dispute could further worsen. This must be avoided at all costs.

    Both the United States and the DRPK have recently taken tentative steps to ease the tension. In the United States, calls have been made for a mechanism to be established through the Six-Party Talks that would resolve all questions related to the nuclear issue. The DPRK has also declared its strategic resolution to get rid of its nuclear weapons. It has also expressed its willingness to abide by the joint declaration, as well as its desire for a nuclear-free-zone on the Korean Peninsula and the drafting of a peace treaty. However, the recent DPRK missile tests not only caused great concern in the international community, but also seriously worsened the Washington-Pyongyang relationship (and for that matter, the Tokyo-Pyongyang relationship). Under these circumstances, the chances of a resumption of the Six-Party Talks are becoming increasingly remote.

    Nevertheless, should the missile issue be resolved, this may well act as a catalyst to promoting the resumption of the talks. And all parties concerned should seek to achieve this.

    As a result of the nuclear issue, DPRK-Republic of Korea (ROK) detente has been disrupted. Military confrontation continues to exist and the people on both sides are still separated to a great extent. Normalization of relations between the DPRK and ROK remains a dream, and the chances remain remote for the replacement of the present armistice with a new peace mechanism.

    But what is heartening is that, despite the extremely difficult conditions, the DPRK and ROK continue with their dialogue and contacts (including military dialogue), civilian exchanges are maintained and economic co-operation continues to develop. The "sunshine policy" and "peaceful co-operation policy" proposed by the ROK enable both Pyongyang and Seoul to realize that they are brothers, not enemies.

    Territorial and maritime disputes are the second hot topic in Northeast Asia.

    Disputes over territorial and maritime interests in the Northeast Asia have existed for a long time and have generated tension, even leading to war. In recent years, China and Russia managed to resolve their territorial disputes through dialogue. However, territorial and maritime disputes still exist between Japan and Russia, and among China, Japan, the DPRK and ROK. It would be fairly difficult to reach an early resolution of these disputes. This issue now constitutes a major problem for regional security.

    Frictions between China and Japan and between the ROK and Japan have escalated in recent years. Apart from territorial disputes, fresh controversies have also erupted over the 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zones, the demarcation of the continental shelf, and the exploration and exploitation of maritime resources. Correspondingly, there has been an escalation of military activities and mutual surveillance of ships and planes. Public opinion has also gone to extremes.

    On the question of territorial and maritime disputes, China's position is:

    To resolve disputes through dialogue and consultation in accordance with international law and in the spirit of mutual interest and accommodation. China is resolutely opposed to the use or threat of force.

    Whenever an issue can be resolved once and for all, it should be fully and totally settled. Controversies that cannot be resolved totally can be handled on the principle of "setting aside disputes and pursuing joint development."

    Before any accommodation can be found, both sides must strive to stabilize the situation, establish confidence-building measures, and avoid any move that would seriously affect bilateral relations.

    Among this set of principles, "setting aside disputes and pursuing joint development" is a new concept that China has been promoting. In the current negotiations on the East China Sea issue, China and Japan have reached a common understanding on this principle, even though the two sides have major differences. This is significant progress. And as long as the two sides maintain this direction and seek a possible formula, the impasse over the East China Sea issue that now exists can be resolved and a broad vision of co-operation will manifest itself. Any breakthrough in terms of joint development will serve as a positive example for other territorial and maritime disputes.

    In general, since the end of the Cold War, on the question of territorial disputes, most countries concerned have been inclined to avoid the use of force and attempt to settle disputes through dialogue. In recent years, the main cause of the escalated frictions between China and Japan, and between the ROK and Japan, has the serious deterioration of political relations among the countries concerned. Therefore, if territorial disputes are to be brought effectively under control and resolved satisfactorily, the proper handling of the political relationship among the countries concerned is a precondition. The final solution to Sino-Russian territorial disputes has set a very good example.

    The author is director of Centre for Foreign Policy Studies, China Foundation For International and Strategic Studies.

    (Source: China Daily)