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BEIJING, May 20 -- US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice announced on Monday that the United Stated decided to restore
full diplomatic ties with Libya and clear the nation from the list of
terrorism-supporting countries. The Libyan Government welcomed the decision.
This means that the 25-year-old US-Libyan
confrontation comes to an end.
Interpretation of this varies. The sudden
announcement of the rapprochement is closely related to the issue of Iran's
nuclear bidding.
Over a long period of time, Washington called Libya,
together with Iran and others, a "rogue nation," which allegedly supported
terrorism, and was one of the seven countries that could be subject to possible
US nuclear strikes.
The situation altered somewhat since the outbreak of
the Iraqi War in 2003. The military forces of the United States and its allies
toppled the Saddam Hussein regime with the excuse that Iraq went in for weapons
of mass destruction (WMD) programmes. They did so in hopes of making the regime
a public example that would pressure others to give up their alleged WMD
bidding.
Iran took no heed of this and went on doing what it
deemed should be done. Libya, however, was co-operative, abandoning its
so-called WMD programmes.
For the co-operative attitude on the part of Libya,
the United States gave some limited encouragement, restoring diplomatic
representatives to the country in 2004.
But restoration of full diplomatic relations did not
occur because Libya, in the eyes of the United States, remained a "totalitarian"
country, running counter to Washington's push for US-style freedom and
democracy, even though Libya's co-operation in WMD issues was in the United
States' strategic interest.
The deadlock over Iran's nuclear bidding cornered the
United States to a dilemma: Military strikes are difficult to carry out right
now and diplomatic means are yielding no significant results.
It is in this context that US-Libyan ties were put on
the agenda. The United States wanted to convey this message: US-Iranian ties
could be restored if Iran follows Libya's example, despite the fact that the
United States dislikes the Iranian regime.
The message is naturally not only for the ear of Iran
and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea but also for other "rogue
countries" - Middle-East nations that are in the throes of transformation and
some Latin American countries.
The United States, for instance, decided to impose
arms embargo on Venezuela almost simultaneously while it announced rapprochement
with Libya. The contrast between the punishment and reward helps bring home to
other countries the intention that "those who obey survive, those do not perish"
in the US international strategy.
To what extent this kind of "punishment and
rewarding" strategy would impact the Iran and DPRK's nuclear bidding and those
"disobedient" countries, such as Sudan and Venezuela, is worth keeping an eye
on.
Oil constitutes another important factor behind the
rapprochement. As the second-largest oil producing country in Africa and an
important nation located in the North, Libya enjoys unique geopolitical and
economic value.
Currently, the oil-rich Middle East is in chaos and
the last thing the Bush administration wants is for the United States to become
an "oil hostage" to the Middle East, where the US Government is strenuously
pushing for democratic transformation.
The situation is compounded by the fact that some
Latin American countries are increasingly tilting to the left, threatening to
become an unstable energy-resources backyard for the United States.
In view of all this, opening up new energy
resources-supplying bases becomes a strategic imperative for the United States.
More importantly, the United States could use Libya
as its military and logistical foothold in the Middle East. So in this sense,
both energy-strategy and geopolitical considerations loom large behind the
restoration of US-Libyan diplomatic ties.
But most importantly, both security interests and oil
interests are at the service of a grander strategic goal - overhauling the
United States' African strategy.
Since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, the
US strategic focus has been shifting from Europe and the Middle East to Central
Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, but Africa, a kind of "strategic vacuum area,"
has gone largely ignored.
In the latter half of the Clinton administration, the
US Government made diplomatic attempts to strengthen US-African relations,
manifested by former US President Bill Clinton's 12-day Africa tour.
But the efforts were largely watered down by a new
leader in the White House and the impacts of the terror attacks on September 11,
2001. As a result, US-African ties have made little progress over the last few
years.
By contrast, other major world countries have made
impressive advances in Africa, taking advantage of the United States'
non-action. Britain, France and Italy, which have traditional ties with African
countries, enjoy inherent advantages in advancing relations there. China,
traditionally friendly toward Africa, also enjoys a solid foundation in
promoting Sino-African ties.
The most pressing strategic task for the United
States is, therefore, to attach great strategic importance to Africa.
It is against this grand strategic backdrop that the
restoration of full diplomatic ties with Libya, which still has defective human
rights records by US standards, was effected.
The United States' overseas strategy puts strategic
interests first, and sidelines other factors like involving values of democracy
and human rights till later on.
Libya naturally has its own strategic considerations
- improving relations with the United States as soon as possible so that its
big-country status among African countries and in the Arab world can be
restored.
Where Africa is going is a question that haunts the
international community. It poses a strategic question African countries
themselves must answer as well. With the major world players, political as well
as economic, casting their eyes on Africa, African countries face challenges and
are also presented with historical opportunities.
Will a chain reaction in African-US relations be
triggered off by the restoration of US-Libyan diplomatic ties and by the United
States' increasing strategic input in the continent? This is a subject worth
closely watching and following.
The author is a researcher with the China
Institute of Contemporary International Relations
(Source: China Daily) |