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Why this conclusion? As the US military rationalizes,
first, China has invested heavily in its military. Second, the outside world has
little knowledge of Chinese motivations and decision-making or capabilities
supporting its military modernization. Third, Chinese deployment in the Taiwan
Straits has put regional military balances at risk.
And perhaps the most crucial point is that China's
political democratization and economic liberalization are far from reaching
their goals.
Compare this year's report with the previous two
versions and one can see the US is increasing its strategic vigilance towards
China.
It is also revealing its strategic preparedness from
its previously thinly veiled stance. In the 1997 report, China was to be a
"potential strategic competitor" with comparable clout, but was grouped with
Russia.
The 2001 report mentioned "a military competitor with
a formidable resource base" that would emerge in the region, without naming
names, but added, "Russia does not pose a large-scale conventional military
threat to NATO."
The 2006 report has made an unequivocal statement and
also stipulated the hedging strategy that the US should adopt. This is very rare
in any of the US' previously issued strategic reports.
The speedup of China's military modernization has its
own logic, which is completely reasonable.
It is a necessary step for a major power in a new phase of development, just like the US did at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century when it invested heavily in its naval power. It is also an act of preparedness in response to the escalating trends of "Taiwan independence."
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