OTTAWA, Jan. 22 (Xinhuanet) -- The latest poll showed that Canada's Conservatives have kept momentum with a 10-point lead over Liberals and is poised to win Monday's election, ending a 12-year rule of the Liberal Party.

    The poll by the Strategic Counsel for Canadian Television and The Globe and Mail finds the Conservatives and Liberals registering support of 37 percent and 27 percent respectively, local media reported on Sunday.

    But Tory leader Stephen Harper will find it almost impossible to achieve an absolute majority in the 308-seat House of Commons. During the eight-week campaign, Harper has retained his comfortable 7- to 12-point lead in all major polls with 38 percent as best results. But election analysts say a minimum 40 percent is needed to get 155 seats necessary for a majority.

    Thus the result will be probably a minority government, which will be dependent on other parties and usually short-lived. This is Canada's second election in just 18 months and the third since late 2000.

    When the campaign started in late November, most analysts bet the result would be another minority Liberal government. However, a well-organized Tory campaign vs a flawed Liberal one, voter fatigue with scandal-haunted Liberals and desire for change has led to the turnaround.

    With nothing new to say during the first half of the campaign, the Liberals has campaigned mainly on their fiscal record, reminding people the economy was booming and trying to portray Harper as a right-wing extremist who is pro-American and non-tolerant of same-sex or abortion.

    But Harper has cautiously posted himself as a moderate who would bring positive but not drastic change to Canada. Throughout the campaign, he has reassured Canadians he will uphold the nation's extensive social-service network, and keep intact the abortion law.He has also carefully treaded around cross-border issues, vowing to uphold Canadian interest in softwood dispute.

    But the Liberals have did a far worse campaign. While Harper focused on promises to clean up government in the wake of the Liberal kickback scandal, the Liberals were caught in another scandal right in the middle of the campaign. The fact that federal police confirmed in December they were investigating allegations that Liberal officials secretly tipped off certain investors before an important tax policy announcement simply added to the Liberals' woes.

    The Conservatives' rise in popularity is not a sign that overall Canadian attitudes are moving rightward, some commentators have pointed out. Harper's increased support among the politically-active elite who think their interest can be better represented by the Tories and a desire for change among the public after a consecutive 12-year Liberal rule would be the major factor in Haper 's win, they said.

    The basic set of attitudes held by the mainstream Canadians, namely goals like tolerance and diversity, social inclusion and equality, as well as internationalism, the United Nations and the rule of law are still there, analysts said.

    On the other hand, while some Canadians are still suspicious of Stephen Harper's conservatism, analysts are quick to point out that in his party's platform and in his campaign speeches, Harper has differed only vaguely with the Liberals.

    "I think what I've tried to lay out to the Canadian people is that we would take a middle-road approach," Harper said lately. His government would focus on fiscal issues and on his pledge to transfer more powers to the provinces, he said.

    But nobody could forecast the result of the election. In a last-ditch election effort on Sunday, Liberal leader Paul Martin said he is still confident his party could made a comeback at the last minute just like in the last election. Warning voters again about the Tories' "ultra-conservative" values, he told supporters that "we're going to win this election" in Richmond, B.C..

    During the 2004 election, the Liberals staged a final triumph although polls during the campaign showed otherwise. Enditem