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BEIJING,Jan. 16 (Xinhuanet by Xinhua writers Gu Qianjiang, Gao Li ) -- China's huge foreign exchange reserves, which amounted to 818.9 billion U.S. dollars by the end of 2005, have become a major news item that arouses much interest at home and abroad.
The government's foreign currency regulator's recent
remark, that it will "further optimize forex reserve assets and widen forex
reserves investment scope this year," has sparked a downward trend for the U.S.
dollar in the international foreign exchange market.
Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of
China, the central bank, has publicly denied rumors that China would sell off
some of its U.S. Treasury bonds.
An industry insider, who asked not to be named,
explained in an interview with Xinhua that people worldwide are not showing much
interest in the U.S. dollar since the cycle of U.S. dollar interest rate hikes
by the US Federal Reserve is almost at an end.
Besides, the United States' huge trade deficit is
still there. So any speculation in this regard can cause market response, he
noted.
He said that China's decision to optimize its forex
reserves is simply an illustration of the business principle of "not putting all
your eggs in one basket."
"China needs to diversify its holdings to ensure
their more effective management because forex reserves are climbing very fast,"
he said.
However, he noted that this does not mean that China
will sell off its U.S. dollar holdings.
Figures published by the United States showed that
while the U.S. dollar holdings of Japan and other countries fall, China's
holdings are rising, the industry insider said.
An independent "chain" exists between China and the
United States as China has a huge trade surplus with the United States, which
helped increase China's forex reserves.
On the other hand, China spends forex reserves buying
U.S. Treasury bonds, which helps reduce the latter's trade deficit.
"So, if China decides to sell off its dollar assets,
it will be beneficial neither to China nor to the United States," the insider
said.
His view was that U.S. dollar still dominates the
international currency system and is still the main currency used in
international settlement.
Besides, he said, if one takes a long-term view, the
U.S. economy is performing better than the economies of Japan and the European
Union countries.
This means that holding U.S. dollar assets instead of
other currencies can achieve much better returns, he said.
China's foreign exchange reserves, the second largest
in the world only after Japan, have grown remarkably in recent years thanks to
strong fund inflows and a burgeoning trade surplus.
"The pace of build-up of forex reserves will continue
to be strong in 2006," the insider said. "It's only a matter of time before
China overtakes Japan."
He urged the central government to diversify currency
holdings and buy corporate bonds to expand investment channels.
As to whether China's forex reserves are too big, Yu
Weibin, a Ph.D with the Financial Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences, stressed the important role of forex reserves in dealing with
financial crises, natural disasters and accidents and in supporting people's
confidence in their own currency.
China should not change its policies regarding the
forex reserves, Yu said.
However, he urged the government to adjust the
structure of forex reserves and increase the proportion of mid- and long-term
foreign treasury bonds with higher returns, so as to achieve better returns.
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