CHAIN-REACTING FAILURES

    Though such appalling images of the dams burst, however, were not publicized during that time when Chinese leaders considered natural disaster death tolls a state secret, an investigation by central government soon after the floods found a series of "unexpected failures" led to the nightmare.

    Xinhua learned that only a rainfall of 100 millimeters was forecast by the Beijing-based Central Meteorological Observatory forecast before the 1975 typhoon because no meteorologists in China then could reach an accurate prediction "given their scientific knowledge".

    Water resources researchers said the design of those reservoirs and the guiding principles to contain the might Huaihe River should be blamed for such a calamity.

    "The problem was not only the weather forecast," said Li Zechun, who first arrived at the scene as a weather forecaster after the floods 30 years ago and now an Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering Sciences, "that tragedy was a man-made calamity rather than a natural one."

    Li said the water storage for irrigation function of a reservoir was overemphasized amid reservoir construction heat in the late 1959s despite warnings by some scientists that much of a reservoir's flood control was ignored.

    The Banqiao Reservoir, which first collapsed, for example, was designed with only a capacity of 492 million cubic meters but it had to accommodate more than 697 million cubic meters of floods then.

    The absence of an early-warning system or evacuation plan then also made the flooded areas quickly descended into chaos, Li said.

    LIVE WITH FUTURE FLOODS

    Since floods and drought are a fact of life for much of China, academics said, Chinese should be prepared for any devastating floods in the future.

    "Henan still has an arduous task in flood control in future," said Kong Haijiang, a researcher with Henan Province Meteorological Observatory.

    Kong estimated that a landfall of typhoon might cause a regional torrential rain similar to that in 1975. "We need to be prepared."

    Other new threats in future floods have already emerged, said Li Zechun, the academician, such as the fast development of chemical industry in reservoir areas.

    "Once the chemical plants are flooded, the contamination to the environment is immeasurable," Li said, "we have already witnessed such results in New Orleans from Hurricane Katrina."

    Li said to prepare for future floods, a data base consisting of meteorological, hydrological, environmental protection, forestry and agricultural departments should be established first to form auniform environment monitoring networks.

    At the same time, Li said, the best way to prevent and control natural disasters was to have an early-warning system with a safe communication system.

    "Had the communication in the reservoir areas not been cut off in 1975, " he said, "more lives would have had been saved in downstream." Enditem