JOHANNESBURG, Dec. 1 (Xinhuanet) -- The killer disease AIDS has posed a disastrous threat to South Africa as the annual number of deaths due to AIDS is projected to peak with 487,320 in the year 2008.

    South Africa has the world's highest number of HIV infections, namely 5.6 million or 12 percent of the total population of 46 million.

    By 2020, the total population in South Africa is expected to be23 percent smaller than it would be without AIDS, according to a recent report published in the African Journal of AIDS Research.

    Life expectancy at birth is expected to hit a low of 45.6 years in the time period 2005-2010, which is 22 years less than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. Ten years from now over 2.5 million AIDS orphans are projected for South Africa.

    Prof. Rob Dorrington, head of the Center for Actuarial Research at the University of Cape Town, said that AIDS will account for 44 percent of all deaths this year. Population growth has fallen to 0.8 percent a year, and is projected to fall to 0.4 percent in the years beyond 2011.

    In South Africa, HIV is spread mainly through heterosexual sex, which is a lot more complicated than sharing contaminated needles.

    As in many other developing countries, young women are most at risk of becoming infected. In older age groups, more men than women are infected, reflecting the tendency of men to have younger sexual partners. HIV prevalence is highest among women aged 25 to 29 (29.7 percent), and among men aged 30-34 (26.4 percent).

    Obviously, HIV/AIDS has produced tremendous negative impact upon South Africa. A recent World Bank study predicted an economic collapse in South Africa within four generations if more isn't done to stem the epidemic here.

    More than 20 percent of the country's citizens in the 15-49-agegroup are currently infected and it is estimated that the rainbow nation could lose half of its per capita income in the next few generations if drastic measures are not taken.

    In the latest World Bank study it was demonstrated that AIDS not only destroys existing human capital, but that the disease also weakens the way in which knowledge and experiences are transmitted from one generation to the next, since children of HIV/AIDS victims are often left without role models to educate them.

    A rise in premature adult mortality also lowers investments in education and the proportion of households that can afford to send children off to school, and orphans are instantly subjected to a life of poverty.

    This situation could have a dramatic impact on future productivity and economic activity.

    AIDS tends to strike young adults. This means that AIDS reduces life expectancy and the rate of population growth, increasing the burden on the working age population.

    AIDS is very slow moving. The time span between infection and death is generally in the range of eight to ten years. Initially, the productivity of the HIV-infected individual will not be significantly affected, but as the infection progresses into full-blown AIDS, labor productivity will decline. This has implicationsfor supply of goods and services, while a subsequent increase in medical costs will have implications for demand.

    Infection rates differ by skill class. Previous research indicated that semi-skilled and unskilled workers are more frequently affected than highly skilled workers. This could mean that the average productivity of unskilled labor would decrease and that overall demand for unskilled labor could take a similar plunge as machinery replaces manual labor - a situation that couldexacerbate unemployment.

    If projections are made from current data to 2010, it looks as if mortality rates will rise to 36 percent for males and 54 percent for females within the next six years. Only 29 percent of children would not experience parental loss, the latest research indicates.

    However, all is not lost, experts reckon. If the South African government acts quickly and effectively, economic growth can stillbe maintained although to a much lesser degree than would have been the case in the absence of AIDS. Enditem