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Arafat's health shocks Mideast peace track
www.chinaview.cn 2004-10-30 02:39:05

     JERUSALEM, Oct. 29 (Xinhuanet) -- When ailing Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat arrived at Paris Friday for medical treatment, his deteriorating health condition sent shockwave across the Middle East political arena.

    The claim that there is no negotiating partner, which has formed the basis of Israel's foreign policy over the past four years and justified its refusal to negotiate with the Palestinians, would go with the possible death of Arafat.

    On the ground, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's unilateral disengagement plan, aimed at keeping the Palestinian side at bay, would lose momentum due to the lack of a Palestinian partner.

    Only two days after the Israeli Knesset (parliament) approved the pullout plan, circumstances appeared to be suddenly changing.

    Many Knesset members called on Sharon on Thursday to change his policy. Left-wing Labor party Knesset members said that Israel must work on a new plan to discuss the disengagement with the Palestinian side.

    The right-wing Shas asked Sharon to freeze the pullout plan immediately, waiting for order to be restored in the Palestinian National Authority (PNA).

    Meanwhile, Arafat's health condition would by all means stir repercussions in the Palestinian territories.

    Israeli officials predicted that the political vacuum left by Arafat's departure might make the area slip into an internal power struggle.

    Shalom Harari, a senior Israeli military analyst of Palestinian affairs, expected that a more profound power struggle would emerge between the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the radical Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).

    "Arafat personally embodied the leadership of three organizations: the PNA, the PLO, and the Fatah. Hamas didn't like it, but did not directly challenge him," Harari told Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz.

    "The chairman's heirs will not be privy to the same source of authority. There will be two governments: the Fatah leadership against the Islamic organizations and opponents of the Oslo Peace Process," Harari said.

    Analysts believed that Sharon would be required to begin negotiations immediately if the Palestinian leadership was taken over by Arafat's successors.

    As a first step, Israel would be called upon to extend the olive branch first, such as freeing Palestinian prisoners and freezing settlements.

    Sharon would claim that as long as the situation was not clear and the new leadership not in place, no risks should be taken.

    At the same time, Sharon would demand that the roadmap peace plan be implemented to the letter and negotiations be postponed until violence was completely contained.

    The Palestinian side has pressed for the ernest implementation of the internationally drafted blueprint envisioning a Palestinian state by 2005, while deeming the pullout plan as part of the roadmap instead of an alternative.

    In the US's view, it would be easier for the United States, a strong supporter of the Jewish state and vocal opponent to Arafat, to help restart negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians if Arafat disappears from the political scene.

    Local analysts said that an incoming US president would use the opportunity to renew the US involvement in the moribund peace process. Enditem

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