¡¡¡¡WASHINGTON, Oct. 30 (Xinhuanet) -- There is no doubt that the strong economic growth in the United States is a good news for many, particularly for President George W. Bush as the election year is drawing near.

¡¡¡¡The US Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the US economy grew at a brisk 7.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the strongest quarterly increase since 1984.

¡¡¡¡Although some US analysts had predicted in the past weeks that the US economy might increase at a rate higher than 7 percent in the third quarter following a 3.3 percent gain in the previous quarter, the figure of 7.2 percent still comes as a surprise.

¡¡¡¡The National Association for Business Economists (NABE) predicted that the growth rate will reach 4.3 percent in 2004, the best annual growth since the US economy rose 4.1 percent in 1999.

¡¡¡¡Some analysts said it was fantastic news for the US government,particularly for President Bush as 2004 will be a big year for him,when the national election will decide whether he could hold on topower in the White House.

¡¡¡¡The major engine behind the strong increase was the surge in US consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the US gross domestic product (GDP). The consumer spending increased by a strong 6.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter, compared with a 3.8 percent rise in the second quarter and 1.4 percent in the first quarter.

¡¡¡¡Another encouraging news was the 15.4 percent growth rate in business spending on equipment and software in the third quarter, the largest increase since the first quarter of 2000 and a big step forward from the 8.3 percent gain in the second quarter.

¡¡¡¡The decline in the trade deficit also contributed to the strong growth in the July-September quarter. Exports increased by 9.3 percent after declines in three consecutive quarters, while imports grew only by a slim 0.1 percent following a strong 8.8 percent gain in the second quarter.

¡¡¡¡However, some analysts warned that one should not be over-optimistic about the brisk economy growth in the third quarter as many economists predicted that the growth would slow down and would settle at around 4 percent in the current quarter.

¡¡¡¡The NABE said in a recent forecast that the US GDP growth would be 4 percent in the final quarter and 2.6 percent for the whole year.

¡¡¡¡Apart from the problems that have surfaced recently, some ailments plaguing the country for a long time could hardly evaporate soon.

¡¡¡¡The overcapacity built up in an over-heated economy amid stock market bubbles had made the recovery from the recession which ended in November 2001 quite slow during the past two years.

¡¡¡¡There is no quick fix for the problem of overcapacity. The US business fixed expenditure had declined for eight quarters in a row between the fourth quarter of 2000 and third quarter of 2002. US factories also saw a net loss of jobs for 38 months in a row. Such problems will drag on in the coming quarters.

¡¡¡¡The US economy also suffers from two huge deficits -- the federal deficit and trade deficit. The federal deficit, which is expected to reach 500 billion US dollars, or about 5 percent of the total GDP in the current fiscal year, is particularly worrisome to many economists and the Bush administration.

¡¡¡¡The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided this week to keep the short-term interest rate unchanged at the lowest level since 1958.

¡¡¡¡Moreover, many economists predicted that the unemployment rate in the United States would not fall much in the next year and the jobless rate will be around 6 percent or a little less around November, when the presidential election will be held.

¡¡¡¡"I'm not sure how the US economy will end up this year and the prediction now is very, very widely," Charlene Barshefsky, the trade representative in the Clinton administration, told Xinhua earlier this week. Enditem